Trump is Elected

There is heavy speculation on the election’s impact.

This will probably be like most political outcomes: It is not going to be as BAD as one side thinks. It is not going to be as GOOD as the other side thinks.

Right now it is still difficult to sort out. Trump claims he wants more infrastructure spending. This is something Democrats have been pushing for a long time. On the other hand, he wants immigration reform that is ...

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Chinese Depression? Hypocritical Blame?

This downturn in China could conceivably be a start of a major depression in that country.

I don’t expect this to be the case, but it is a remote possibility.

Does this mean the way the Chinese have been managing their economic growth has been a disaster?

Let’s not start calling “failure” so soon. A lot of the criticism I see of China is hypocritical. The US economy went through incredible gyrations during the “American Century,” including our ...

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Volatility Up…Hold On

Being able to hold on to your investments over the next several years will be an important strategy.

Friday was a hard day in the stock market with the S&P 500 down more than 3%. I would not necessarily say that August 21st was the “official start” of any particular phenomenon, but I do believe volatility in the stock market, and for that matter virtually all capital markets, will increase and remain high for many years.

Doesn’t ...

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Greece Not a Surprise to Some

Three days ago Greece seemed split on the referendum. The results, however, showed the “No’s” won by a wide margin. On July 4th I was told, by someone who is pretty knowledgeable about history, that the Greeks would probably vote “No.”

His reason was that “No” is the same response the Greeks gave Mussolini at the start of WW2 – another time in history when the Greeks felt bullied by larger European neighbors. The connection seems ...

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Hedge Funds Continue to Lose to the Index

Many call it Warren Buffett’s bet against hedge funds. 

Keep in mind the bet doesn’t pit Warren Buffett’s skill against other hedge fund managers. Buffett simply picked the world’s simplest index fund and bet its performance against hedge funds for a 10 year time period.

So what is the bet really? It isn’t Buffett against hedge funds. Rather, it is a challenge to hedge funds to prove aren’t utterly worthless……and they are losing.

There has been a ...

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Cramer on End of QE Myths

Jim Cramer has a decent piece on the end of Quantitative Easing (QE). He calls on Wall Street pundits to apologize for their incorrect predictions.

Cramer breaks it down quite well into several specific predictions that went wrong. The basic idea under fire — The Federal Reserve was propping up the economy with QE, and the moment QE ended the economy would crash like a house of ...

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QE Over…Interest Rates Down?

Big news is that that Federal Reserve announced the end of Quantitative Easing (QE). Interest rates are supposed to spike up now, right?

They certainly haven’t yet. Of course this is only the first day after the announcement. Short term movements can send markets in any direction, and who knows if rates may actually rise over the next year.

But my point is that there is never a situation where you get “direct” and “predictable” market movements, ...

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