Didn’t I say that you can’t predict the market if you can’t predict what effects the market?
I haven’t written anything on the Crimea yet. In the end it will probably pass and be quickly forgotten. Remember the Japan earthquake and the impact it had on the markets?
Crimea provides a great example of the unpredictability of the markets. Can anyone predict what Putin will do? Sometimes he acts like a world leader. Sometimes he acts like and ex-KGB thug. And sometimes he models for shirtless photo-shoots in the rugged, manly wilderness of Siberia (above).
If you can’t predict his actions, then how can you possibly predict the markets?
And remember, on top of the unpredictability of variables like Putin, there is the fact that all other market participants are already attempting to forecast the future. So it’s not just predicting Putin – it is a matter of out-predicting the predictions that are already baked into the market.
When you factor it all in, the best odds are simply on investing long term and holding on.
Photo from Jedimentat44