You Can’t Predict…..

the weather, so how would you ever hope to predict the stock market.

Reports are now coming out that the extreme cold weather in most of the nation this winter had a noticeable impact on the economy.

I am amazed at all of the things we naturally accept are unpredictable (weather, lifespans, wars, elections, etc.)……but then assume the stock market, which is affected by these events, should be predictable.

In fact, the stock market is the most unpredictable of all these systems. Why? Because stock market movements aren’t just hard to predict (like weather), but it is also a system where participants are already attempting to predict the future. This means future expectations are already baked into the current state of the system.

Unpredictable, but not complicated

Once you dig through all of this, you simply find that we can’t know when to buy and when to sell.  But we do know the longer you stay in the market the better chance you have of getting positive returns. Everything else is mostly fluff and charlatanism.